While he's no longer considered the front-runner, Rudy Guiliani has been topping national polls for the Republican ticket for a while. However, an analysis of the primaries show just how long a shot his winning the ticket is. Let's us walk through this...
(I'm using the numbers from RCP)
Jan 3, Iowa: Guiliani comes in fifth.
Jan 8, NH: Guiliani comes way behind Romney and McCain.
Jan 15, MI: Rudy comes in fourth, behind McCain.
Jan 19, SC: Rudy comes in fifth. That's four down in a row.
Jan 19, NV: Rudy has the first chance of winning. But then again, with 3 down, and he's currently tied with Romney, he might lose the chance to win.
Jan 29, FL: So Rudy leads in opinion polls here right now. But with that kind of drubbing, it's hard to see how he can maintain that lead.
So Rudy could well enter Super Tuesday with no wins, and at most 2. Admittedly, the field's diverse, and others could be in the same situation. But Huckabee, Romney and McCain have a lot more 2nd and 3rd place finishes than Rudy.
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