The Terror Democracy Dilemna

Now that Iranian President Mahmud Ahmedinijad is safely back in Iran and the excitement (and not in a good way!) surrounding his visit has subsided, it's worth considering one little detail that has been routinely ignored by the press, and even an academic such as the President of Columbia University. Read this line ....

Mr Ahmedinijad is not a dictator

That's right - despite all the brouhaha over Mr Ahmedinijad, he is many things but not a dictator. Rather, he's been elected in relatively free and fair elections. That's the little detail everyone seems to be ignoring - Iran is a democracy. Now, I have no love lost for Mr Ahmedinijad, and I do think his rhetoric is unfortunate, but I think the hype's getting ahead of him. He actually doesn't really have that much power, and certainly there's enough reason to believe his sabre-rattling is to boost his popularity that's taking a beating thanks to an economy that's tanking despite soaring gas prices.

But this presents a dilemna for our idealist leaders. We'd like to believe democracy goes hand in hand with all we hold good, but this is hardly the case. Remember Adolf Hilter was a democratically elected leader. Ditto Russian President Vladimir Putin, who despite his oppressive rule seems to have record-breaking popularity. It just doesn't fit. In fact, a failing democracy is more likely to have leaders whip up sentiments to distract the electorate.

That's not to say we should not support the installation of democracy globally. Let's just not be so idealistic to believe that democracies are good for us in the absence of taking other steps to deal with real issues. Oh yeah, and dial down that rhetoric - we don't need a war with Iran!

Wednesday Morning Ramblings

Some of the things I'm looking at or thinking about as I work on my models (computer models, silly!) ...

A sign that things in the Middle East aren't as simple as fundamentalist or liberal - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is being attacked for indecency after he embraced and kissed the hand of a former teacher. A fully gloved hand, mind you. Interestingly, the article points out his previous trangression among conservatives was to suggest that maybe, just maybe, women could be allowed to attend football games! Shocker!!

Rupert Murdoch wants to buy the Dow Jones company, meaning the Wall Street Journal would be his. The family is reported to be not interested, but it gives you pause. Could Murdoch take over the entire Fourth Estate someday?

The American Research Group's new poll shows McCain leading in all 3 vital primary states - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. McCain has gained 6% in New Hampshire in the last month, but in Iowa, the story is of Guilani losing a solid 10%. No idea why that happened! So maybe McCain isn't quite down and out. Of course, with the front-loaded primary schedule, these states may not be as important as before.

On the topic of McCain 2008, here are some thoughts for his campaign. While he's still my pick for President, I think it might be time for his campaign to think what it reflects of his performance as a president. He's spent too much money too ineffectively, hardly a prescription for appealing to conservatives. Conservatism is about smart investments, and right now, McCain's return on investment is pretty poor. Also, while he has correctly chosen to focus on Iraq, there are other issues he needs to address. How about railing about runaway spending? Entitlement reform? Taxes?

And finally, at a time we are obsessing about our increasingly violent society in the aftermath of the Virginia Tech shootings, this figure helps us relax a little more. Turns out we are getting less violent after all ...

courtesy: DOJ Bureau of Justice Statistics

The Iranians Love the US!

I was listening to NPR a couple of days back when Abbas Milani, the director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University made an interesting observation: Iran is an interesting case in American opinion in the Middle East. Across the region, we have governments that are somewhat friendly to Washington, while the people hate the US. Iran is the oddball where the government hates the US, describing it as evil, while public opinion of the US is indeed very high. He cautions that in our efforts to contain Iran, we would do well not to damage that public opinion.

Meanwhile, a second aircraft carrier has moved to a strategic position relative to Iran. While this is possibly posturing, the risk we face is that if the Iranians make a "wrong" move, we might find an escalation on our hands.

War on Iran?

One would be justifiably incredulous about suggestions that the US might go to Iran, but when someone of the stature of Ted Koppel suggests his sources in the military suggest this is a possibility, you naturally sit up. Koppel thinks there were indications in a recent Bush speech to point to this, and the deployment of additional strike forces there. Now, the Bush administration surely couldn't be serious. I mean, Iran is a threat, and my personal belief is that Iraq factored into the equation in the first place because of Iran. The plan was once Afghanistan and Iraq become key US allies, a two-pronged ground attack on Iran was now possible. Too bad it can't work! Neither Iraq nor Afghanistan are viable bases for a military campaign (and I say this as a supporter of the war!), and the US now has to look to try to redefine its once grand vision.

I must say I'm amazed at all the talk of a military campaign, be it by the US or Israel, given how foolhardy it would be. Now, Israel genuinely has reasons to be concerned with Ahmadinejad's map-altering desires, but a full-blown war would only expose the Israeli people to more hostility. The Mossad is one of the best intel agencies in the world - I would think they would be able to deploy shoes on the ground (as opposed to boots) and take out key facilities with low-level tactical nukes or appropriate bombs. Given the secrecy in Iranian society and the desire for the ruling class not to reveal their embarassment, Iran will probably never admit it had a nuclear facility, let alone one Mossad was able to take out - which is all the better!