The Terror Democracy Dilemna

Now that Iranian President Mahmud Ahmedinijad is safely back in Iran and the excitement (and not in a good way!) surrounding his visit has subsided, it's worth considering one little detail that has been routinely ignored by the press, and even an academic such as the President of Columbia University. Read this line ....

Mr Ahmedinijad is not a dictator

That's right - despite all the brouhaha over Mr Ahmedinijad, he is many things but not a dictator. Rather, he's been elected in relatively free and fair elections. That's the little detail everyone seems to be ignoring - Iran is a democracy. Now, I have no love lost for Mr Ahmedinijad, and I do think his rhetoric is unfortunate, but I think the hype's getting ahead of him. He actually doesn't really have that much power, and certainly there's enough reason to believe his sabre-rattling is to boost his popularity that's taking a beating thanks to an economy that's tanking despite soaring gas prices.

But this presents a dilemna for our idealist leaders. We'd like to believe democracy goes hand in hand with all we hold good, but this is hardly the case. Remember Adolf Hilter was a democratically elected leader. Ditto Russian President Vladimir Putin, who despite his oppressive rule seems to have record-breaking popularity. It just doesn't fit. In fact, a failing democracy is more likely to have leaders whip up sentiments to distract the electorate.

That's not to say we should not support the installation of democracy globally. Let's just not be so idealistic to believe that democracies are good for us in the absence of taking other steps to deal with real issues. Oh yeah, and dial down that rhetoric - we don't need a war with Iran!

Wednesday Morning Ramblings

Some of the things I'm looking at or thinking about as I work on my models (computer models, silly!) ...

A sign that things in the Middle East aren't as simple as fundamentalist or liberal - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is being attacked for indecency after he embraced and kissed the hand of a former teacher. A fully gloved hand, mind you. Interestingly, the article points out his previous trangression among conservatives was to suggest that maybe, just maybe, women could be allowed to attend football games! Shocker!!

Rupert Murdoch wants to buy the Dow Jones company, meaning the Wall Street Journal would be his. The family is reported to be not interested, but it gives you pause. Could Murdoch take over the entire Fourth Estate someday?

The American Research Group's new poll shows McCain leading in all 3 vital primary states - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. McCain has gained 6% in New Hampshire in the last month, but in Iowa, the story is of Guilani losing a solid 10%. No idea why that happened! So maybe McCain isn't quite down and out. Of course, with the front-loaded primary schedule, these states may not be as important as before.

On the topic of McCain 2008, here are some thoughts for his campaign. While he's still my pick for President, I think it might be time for his campaign to think what it reflects of his performance as a president. He's spent too much money too ineffectively, hardly a prescription for appealing to conservatives. Conservatism is about smart investments, and right now, McCain's return on investment is pretty poor. Also, while he has correctly chosen to focus on Iraq, there are other issues he needs to address. How about railing about runaway spending? Entitlement reform? Taxes?

And finally, at a time we are obsessing about our increasingly violent society in the aftermath of the Virginia Tech shootings, this figure helps us relax a little more. Turns out we are getting less violent after all ...

courtesy: DOJ Bureau of Justice Statistics

Pressure Maliki, for Heaven's Sakes!

Today, there was a story about how Iraqi President Maliki has been sacking senior officers who have been too aggressive on the Shiite militia's like al-Sadr's Mahdi army. This is starting to get old, and it's high time the US started to put more pressure on him. Not just pressure that US forces will leave if there is little political progress, which is useful to a point, but also maybe we need to start talking partition. Democratic presidential Joe Biden is the only one who has seriously pushed this idea, and there certainly are numerous challenges, but as the alternatives dry, it might be a good option to keep pushing if for no reason that to keep Maliki on his toes.

A few thoughts on partition, by the way. The common response is Turkey would never allow an independent Kurdistan, and the rest of the Iraqis wouldn't accept a breakway republic with most of the oil. Maybe so, but as I see it, Turkey has little leverage in this debate - the US could "accept" a Kurdish offer for permanent bases that would deter any Turkish aggression. The oil is trickier, but is precisely why the US needs to start considering this option more seriously - it sends a message to Shiites and Sunnis that a prolonged stalemate could be the equivalent of singing sayanora to their oil riches.

Pelosi Alert!!

Always watch out for a politician who has too exaggerated an opinion of him or herself! The latest victim to this self-indulgent think is Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who seems to think that just because she's the first speaker of the House, she needs to try and be a pseudo-president. Her latest escapade was a damaging trip to Syria, where she conveyed a peace message from Olmert and "determined the road to Damascus is a road of peace". Except that Olmert's office denies it ever sent a peace message, and Syria is hardly a peaceful country, implicated in the assasination of the former Lebanese prime minister and supporters of the malicious Hizbollah.

What Ms Pelosi did achieve was to perpetuate a sense of American weakness - the idea that the insurgents in Iraq have used to egg each other on - that democracy weakens the spirit and that when the going gets tough, America gets going. I'm all for negotiations with all parties, but when a speaker of the House choses to subvert the elected leader of the free world, it makes you shake your head in disgust. But forget me, even that liberal bastion, the Washington Post had a damning editorial on Pelosi's foolish shuttle diplomacy.

War on Iran?

One would be justifiably incredulous about suggestions that the US might go to Iran, but when someone of the stature of Ted Koppel suggests his sources in the military suggest this is a possibility, you naturally sit up. Koppel thinks there were indications in a recent Bush speech to point to this, and the deployment of additional strike forces there. Now, the Bush administration surely couldn't be serious. I mean, Iran is a threat, and my personal belief is that Iraq factored into the equation in the first place because of Iran. The plan was once Afghanistan and Iraq become key US allies, a two-pronged ground attack on Iran was now possible. Too bad it can't work! Neither Iraq nor Afghanistan are viable bases for a military campaign (and I say this as a supporter of the war!), and the US now has to look to try to redefine its once grand vision.

I must say I'm amazed at all the talk of a military campaign, be it by the US or Israel, given how foolhardy it would be. Now, Israel genuinely has reasons to be concerned with Ahmadinejad's map-altering desires, but a full-blown war would only expose the Israeli people to more hostility. The Mossad is one of the best intel agencies in the world - I would think they would be able to deploy shoes on the ground (as opposed to boots) and take out key facilities with low-level tactical nukes or appropriate bombs. Given the secrecy in Iranian society and the desire for the ruling class not to reveal their embarassment, Iran will probably never admit it had a nuclear facility, let alone one Mossad was able to take out - which is all the better!

Perspectives on Terror

The world has seen two very different responses to acts of terror in recent days. While Israel sought to attack Lebanon to recover its kidnapped soldiers, India has thus far maintained a much less aggressive tack after the Mumbai blasts that killed 200, at last count. Till earlier this evening, I wished India would adopt Israel's aggression, striking militant camps in Pakistan rather than waiting for its neighbor to seek them out. Over dinner, watching the Newshour gave me another perspective.

I would encourage you to listen to or read the comments of Hisham Melhem, the Washington bureau chief for the Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar, and host of a weekly program on the Arab satellite channel Al-Arabiya on the Newshour. He made a lot of sense about how retaliation pushes the moderates out of the political space. For example, in the Lebanon case, he argued that the Lebanese government is not in a position to do anything about Hezbollah, not because they don't want to, but because Hezbollah is militarily more powerful than the government itself. The Lebanese government then has to try to coax the militant group to lay down its arms, something the recent offensive makes a lot more difficult.

Postscript Soon after I posted this, I read this column by Saisuresh Sivaswamy arguing for a aggressive response, just as the US had done in the days after 9/11.

The Palestinian Implosion?

I was in a passionate debate with a Muslim friend today about Israel-Palestinian politics. This friend argued, like many other Muslims, that the Palestinians are fighting a just war for their lands, and were martyrs. While there may have been historic injustices to the Palestinians, I find it hard to accept a struggle based on violence, especially one directed at innocent men, women and even children.

I cherish the Indian freedom movement's peaceful roots, which later served as role models for great movements such as Martin Luther King's civil rights protests, the battle against apartheid and the like. Peaceful protest has incredibly great power not just of galvanising the outside world to support your cause, but also controlling the spread of violence internally. Palestinians are already starting to see the cracks in their society, such as armed militants storming the office of the Prime Minister. Ethnic conflicts propped by violence have a tendency for those violent tendencies to backfire on the individual societies, and it's only a matter of time before Palestine implodes. Western aid drying up and a lack of true aid in excess of lip service from the Arab countries could prove the catalyst.

Hamas would do well then to take some time to read the history of global conflicts, not for the sake of the Jewish people who they target, but for the sake of their own people.