Spoil the Child and Spare the Rod?

Looks like England is where a new educational revolution is taking shape. I thought the US was bad in laxity in education. Well, sorry, but the UK takes the cake for this one. After doing away with "failure" in favor of "deferred success", the latest twist is that one school in the UK is allowing students to cuss at the teachers! But only 5 times in a lecture mind you - we don't students to think there are no rules!!

Much has been made about outsourcing and immigrant workers, but till countries return to the education principles that made them successful, they will be victims of their own success. That is how great civilizations fail ... er, I mean defer future success for several generations.

La Presidente 2008

This article in CNN got me all excited about the presidential race of 2008. Yes, it's all of three years away, but gosh, look at the field. Of course, while I'd love John McCain to be the next president, he has NO hope of winning the Republican ticket. In my opinion, that honor will go to Jeb Bush or Condi Rice if either decide to run, else Bill Frist will probably be the favorite, with George Allen an outside shot. And no, Rudi Guilliani has no hope, because unlike Democrats, Republicans dont think of who the other side may approve of.

For the Democrats, the race starts and ends with one name - Hillary Clinton. And I think that may be the end of the race. I believe she carries a lot of baggage. Social conservatives hate the thought of Bill being a First Gentleman, fiscal conservatives hate the fact that she pioneered the universal health care plan (good intentions, but here choice was a large govt-managed plan) and too many people think she's too liberal to lead America. I don't think she's as liberal as she's potrayed to be, but perception's a hard thing to beat.

So here would be the fascinating races of 2008:

McCain v Clinton => Large swathes of conservatives would sit out. Tough race, but I'd hope McCain pulls this one off.

Rice v Clinton => Unthinkable! The sad reality is America is not yet ready for having two women run for president. As much as city folk like to think gender bias is dead, it isn't and it will be a long time before something like this happens.

Guillani v Clinton => Impossible! People need something different in the 2 candidates to choose from. While McCain is at least socially conservative, G is a Democrat in Republican robes.

Frist v Clinton => Replay Bush v Kerry, except the Republican ticket doesnt have the Bushian charm (yes, you read that right!) and the Democratic ticket doesnt put you to sleep. But Hillary may pull this off if Bill Clinton hits the stump hard.

Bush v Clinton => If Jeb takes tips from his elder brother rather than his dad, he'd win hands down. While Bush Sr was an incredible statesman (I was enthralled by an interview with Jim Lehrer) George would tell him that statesman dont win elections - "common men" do. And so, like Bush, play the ordinary-man card (even if you did better at Harvard than your "intelligent" opponent) and appeal to the base. Unfortunately for his supporters, I don't know if he could (from what I hear, he's much more like dad)

I can't comment on the Allen nomination because even though he's a senator from my state, I know little about him.

Sidebar: If McCain miraculously wins, it is possible Sen Lindey Graham (R-SC) gets an administration role. Awesome!

Disclaimer: None of these views reflect those of my family, and especially my brother, who practically worships Bill Clinton!

Lance a Dopie?

Allegations that Lance Armstrong may have used performance-enhancing drugs reached a new high after a French newspaper published what they said was an expose on the issue. While we do not know the facts of the case, one can only hope they are untrue. Lance has been a real inspiration to many people I know, and it would be shattering to find out that the story of strength was a lie.

Fallen Soldiers and Their Moms

Why is it that the media gives so much attention to Cindy Sheehan and ignores the fact that so very many military families actually support the war? I respect any mom in her grief of having lost a son, and I know these fallen soldiers chose a profession I'd be too much of a wimp to take to, but as several military moms point out, that's exactly what their children signed up for - to defend freedom. And yet the media, keen to tell a story (that the war is unpopular) continues its daily coverage of Sheehan and Co.

To be fair, I don't think it's just a liberal bias. I think it's the media's need to find news. Sheehan is news. People saying they support our policies aren't. You could do a piece emphasizing how life in Iraq is compared to barbaric Saddam times, but negative stories sell - positive ones don't (except when we are overcome with emotion like after 9/11) Oh, and they actually take some work. Sure, there are common men in Baghdad who hate the US, but I bet you there are just as many appreciative that they could actually vote for a government (and heck, did they vote or what!)

Tenure Clock

I was heartened to learn that Princeton is giving new parents an additional year for tenure review. At last someone is seriously trying to address this issue. It is indeed tragic that most female professors either have stay-at-home husbands or are single. (Why not the male professors? Could it be, like Harvard President Summers suggested, that they don't give a damn. To be fair, many of the male professors have stay-at-home or work-parttime wives). I think the future will see more realization that parents have a responsibility to family, and we will see in both academe and in industry a greater flexibility in this arena.

The Common Man Beats Detroit, Tokyo and Berlin

I was delighted to read this story about how people are rigging their cars to get 80 mpg, and in some cases as much as 250 mpg. The solution, adding additional batteries which are charged with a plug-in electrical outlet, is simple, and in this era of surging gas prices represents economic sense (besides being friendly to future generations who'd like to have a planet to live in!)

Out of Gaza

Israeli troops are now in the process of withdrawing from Gaza. This is indeed a gutsy (if somewhat risky) call by Sharon. It's now up to moderate Palestinians to take the next step towards peace. This could be a historic opportunity, but one only hopes the Abbas and co don't fritter it away, because if they do, we could see blood flowing in the Middle East for a long time to come.

The Grieving President

This article offers a touching potrait of a president who publicly remains strong, while privately grieving with the widows of US troops fallen in Iraq, and is a must read for all those who, influenced by a liberal media, potray Bush to be some sort of emotionless demon. I used to be one of them, but I have increasingly realized that this is basically a decent man!

Goodbye Peter!

I was truly disappointed to hear of the passing of Peter Jennings, ABC News anchor. Here was a guy who dropped out of high school, and yet achieved tremendous success and popularity for being more learned than his peers. I loved Peter's style of being casual on screen, making it seem like he was chatting with you, one on one, rather than the traditional scripted style that Brokaw and Rather followed. But in the last couple of days since his death, I have learnt a lot about his sense of humor, his love for children, and so many issues. Peter, you lived a good life ... goodbye and we will miss you!

Ok, so I'm obsessed with Bubble Talk

Here's the latest, this from a Fannie Mae document that can be found here. While there's tons of interesting data, I picked these two charts to highlight, because they represent data I had been looking for.


Notice the rising inventory of new homes - BAD BAD!














Rental vacanies have been rising, suggesting a surplus of homes. While this could be because of the mania of individuals trying to buy new homes, and we might see this number drop as the bubble cools off, the levels are worrying given the level of debt. In my city (Charlottesville, VA), apartment complexes are cutting rents by as much as 30-40% due to oversupply of homes.

Paul Graham site

For those of you who didn't read the comments to the previous post, my friend Sriram had a link to an interesting article at www.paulgraham.com. I also found this article a good read, so I would encourage y'all to surf through the list of articles at that site.

Detroit is Finished!

The US auto manufacturers desperately need a brand overhaul, and a serious analysis of why they are in the mess they are. As a Honda lover, I'll tell you why - quality, or rather lack thereof. But rather than address that as well as the obvious image problem they suffer from, Detroit has chosen to throw employee discounts at every Tom, Dick and Harry. This simply won't work. You will see plenty of enthusiasic headlines like this one - Big Three automakers post double-digit gains: Popular employee-pricing discounts deliver blowout results, but in the end what matters is profits.

According to MSN's Moneycentral, Ford and GM's net profit margin's are 1.5% and -0.6%. Put simply, on average, on that $25,000 car you buy, Ford was making all of 374 bucks after expenses, while GM was actually losing money! Clearly with margins that small, increased volume from employee discounts aren't going to help. No wonder analysts have been revising earnings estimates for the next quarter down - Starmine estimates analysts have reduced Ford's earnings by 57% in the last month, and GM's by an astounding 341%! YOW!!!

Granted, what Ford and GM may be trying to do is get rid of inventory, and this is a reasonable goal. But there appears little plan to what the impact will be on brand value, or indeed how to improve brand value! Detroit needs to think quick, or perish like many a business before.

More Indications on the Real Estate Bubble

This story in USNews further supports the general indication that there is a real estate bubble about to pop. The data is pretty conclusive. I've been amazed in talking to people about how much blind optimism there is in the market!

Add those numbers to the chart shown here, which I got from this article at the InvestmentU.com, and you will see a correction in progress.



For full disclosure, I do own shares of real estate companies - Toll Brothers and MDC Holdings, despite my confidence in an impending crash. I am still trying to determine what an appropriate metric might be to determine when to sell them, but for now they are profitable and successful companies that seem undervalued.

Why A Real Estate Crash Is Imminent!

I am currently reading about the bursting of the tech bubble, and the one think that strikes me, something I have thought about for the last few months, is how similar the present real estate market is to the tech bubble. I didn't believe a crash was imminent a few months ago, when many naysayers were forecasting it. But as crash failed to materialize, many bears became bulls, arguing now that things had changed, that traditional ideas about bubbles were no longer valid. This is the same as what happened in the tech bubble - the early bears missed tremendous profit opportunities, thought to themselves, jeez we must be wrong, and bought into the myth of structural change.

The tough part is predicting when the bubble will pop, and how will we guard ourselves? I don't own any real estate, but when housing markets crash, it will ripple through not only our stock market, but those around the world.

Nonstickware and Cancer

There is now a huge debate on whether compounds in nonstick cookware may be carcinogens (for more, see this story in the NYTimes (free registration required). Some tips to reduce the risks cited by the story:

- "Use Teflon pans at lower temperatures, and never put them on the stove to heat without food or liquid inside." This is interesting, because it suggests I may be doing two things wrong. I often pre-heat the pan before pouring oil (BAD!) and also usually run the range on high to cut cooking time (BAD! BAD!)

- Another solution is to cook the old-fashioned way. If cast iron pans are seasoned and heated properly, very little oil is needed for browning. OK, this didnt make sense to me. Why does it matter that less oil is needed, especially if the toxic compounds are from the Teflon rather than the oil? Or is it that the oil is needed to burn the Teflon (contradicts the previous bullet)

- Greasy food that is heated in a microwave oven in a cardboard container is a potential source of PFOA; take the food out of the container and heat it in glass or ceramic. So reheating your pizza in that cardboard box is OUT!

Hopefully they will figure all this out soon, but it does highlight how little we know about the chemicals we interact with. I'd be interesting in seeing if anyone has been able to determine if we have a higher true incidence of cancer than in the past (I use "true" to distinguish from increased incidence due to increased screening and reporting)

Inefficient Cars

While I am not a big proponent for regulation, I do believe the economy has hidden costs that need to be accounted for by laws and protections. This story in the NYTimes (free registration required) about the EPA holding back a report that suggests that cars today are on average less fuel efficient than in the '80s is tragic and shocking. For all the lip-service we give to environmental issues, the only way the marketplace will adopt clean technologies is if we account for the hidden costs of pollution. That we are failing to do is evident by the fact that for all the succeses of hybrids like the Prius, our roads are being swamped by more and more SUVs and gas guzzlers.

On the topic of hybrids, have you heard of the new Accord Hybrid. This baby has 255 horses on a V6 engine, and is faster than the other Accords on the road. The mileage is a lot lower than the Prius, but Honda seems to be trying to attract customers not traditionally motivated by environmental conditions into accepting cleaner technologies. A link in this posting gives a fascinating look into the thinking of Honda management on issues such as clean technology and fuel efficiency.

Etiquette and Life

I've been quite busy at work, and so never got to post this rant till now, so it's a little outdated. A few days back, the Today show had these silly girls of the lacrosse team from Northwestern University, who wore flip-flops to see the President of the United States! Their defense was basically that they meant no disrespect, while the mom of one of the girls was glad she was comfortable.

I'm sorry, but to me this is garbage ... and symptomatic of a serious problem we have - the Death of Etiquette. I'm sure the annoying person in the restaurant talking on their cell phone doesn't mean any disrespect, nor does the person who doesn't bother to hold the elevator for you. They are just being insensitive, something we didn't used to defend.

What about the bus? On a university bus, I apparently offended a likely feminist, who thought me offering her a seat was chauvinistic, while I have myself shaken my head a little at women who do accept that seat but refuse to consider it worthy of something as trivial as a "thanks". We are all so freaking caught up in our crappy existence we seem to forget that society is a collection of humans, and the decency that exists in society is a product of, well the decency of people in the past!

Ladies, did you really think it was appropriate to see the president in flip-flops? I mean, come on, you aren't worth shit, nor am I, compared to the man who gets to decide if he wants to nuke half the world. You may or may not like him, but for godsakes, he is the President and you are meeting him in the White House. If that doesn't qualify for your best dress, then maybe you are too self-obsessed to be a role model of any kind. It is much for important for me, for one, to have a daughter that knows respect than one that's talented!

The President's and a Woman's Right to Choose

Tim Russert had a clip of Bill Clinton as President saying he would only appoint judges who were pro-choice. That raises the question of why President Bush have the right to appoint judges that were pro-life. Bush won the election in part on the platform of voting conservative judges, and I think it's improper for Democrats to try to shoot the Roberts nomination on anything other than ethical or tempermental issues.

That's not to say that Roberts is anti-choice (his wife runs a feminist organization), or that I am resolved on the issue of abortion. In my early years, I was overwhelmingly pro-choice, and still fundamentally find the argument of women having freedom over their bodies appealing. But after seeing a 3-month ultrasound of a friend, I find it disingenous to deny that abortion is not an allowed killing! Where does a balance lie ... when does life begin ... these are questions I have not been able to answer. I would love to hear intelligent opinion on this issue (please use the comment section to do so).

Idiot Pol

OK, come on, how many of you are sick of idiotic politicians? The latest in a string of fools on the Hill is Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO). On a right-wing talk show, our elected representative suggested that if another terrorist attack were to happen, the US should retaliate by taking out Mecca, the holy site for Muslims. Yeah dickhead, nice way to state to the world that the war on terror isn't a war on Islam.

Listen, I'm sick and tired as all else about the failure of moderate Muslims to speak out more forcefully against the extremists, but silly statements like this marginalize those moderates and push the mainstream into the hands of fanatics.

Adversity

I saw the movie 'Marvin's Room' on CBS today. It was quite a good movie, especially since I had found myself recently contemplating adversity. Why do people have to have such struggles in life - from health issues to financial to emotional? This movie, staring Diane Keaton, Meryl Streep and Leo de Caprio among others, was perfect viewing at this time. I had heard 'adversity builds character', but I also realized it so deeply shapes the lives we lead. It forces us out of our complacency, out of our self-obsessed lives of indulgence, to look outside and within.

I recently spoke to an aunt I haven't spoken to in at least 15 years because of concerns with her health. I had thought of calling her before, but it was always, well frankly uncomfortable to do so after all these years. And yet, when hard times are on us, we leave our cushy lives and do things we think we are not ready for. And we always feel empowered when we leave our comfort zones, the freedom from entrapment!

The movie also made me contemplate growing old, growing dependent, death ... all these events we try to block out of our lives. So I'm forcing myself to contemplate these, even though I hope to have a half century or so left in me. Because I feel when we can accept death, we can accept life as it is.

I'd love to hear from my small pool of readers on their thoughts on such matters. Please use the comment form if you feel you have anything to say or share.